Hey, is Denver good now? And are the Bills bad? Let’s draw some wild conclusions based on one result! You have to admit, a month ago you wouldn’t have bet a penny on Denver winning this game IN BUFFALO. That’s because you are not an idiot. The Billiams were 4-2, coming off a surprisingly tight 14-9 win over the Giants. And the Bronco Henries were 1-5 and coming off a surprisingly tight 19-8 loss to the Chiefs. Surprisingly in that a complete blowout was expected, because although Denver managed to beat Chicago, who were at the time winless along with the Panthers (thus implying that there were at least two worse teams than the Broncos), they sure felt like the worst team in the league. It’s hard to shake the stink of that 70-20 Miami obliteration off, especially if you were out-gained 471-311 in that one win against the hapless Bears. Two turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD helped Denver surge back from a 28-7 deficit late in the 3rd quarter, but any obvious momentum gleaned from such an improbably feat dissipated with consecutive losses to the Jets and Chiefs. Then a win against Green Bay, a win against K.C., and a win against Buffalo. How can this be?

You guessed it…turnovers! Denver is -7 in turnover margin in its five losses and +10 in its four wins. The Broncos were never quite as bad as they seemed, and are certainly not as good as they now appear. Russell Wilson was not good last year, but he’s been a top ten QB his entire career, sometimes top five or better. And Sean Payton had the Saints looking like the best franchise this side of New England for a long, long time. Are they past their respective primes? Maybe, maybe not, but they’re not outright bad. This is their first year together, and Wilson is looking a lot more like he did in a Seattle uniform this year. Can they make the playoffs? They just might, but it’s no gimme. The schedule isn’t exactly easy, but there are some winnable games on the docket.

Buffalo is in disarray. That’s three losses in four, and the Patriots were one of them. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey got gently heaved in front of the panic bus this week, even though statistically speaking Buffalo has one of the better offenses in the AFC right now. But it doesn’t feel like that’s the case. It feels like Josh Allen has forgotten how to win football games. He’s racking up the yards and TDs, but also leads the league in INTs (11), including at least one in each of the last six. This shouldn’t come as a complete surprise; he’s always around an interception a game. Only twice has he been significantly below that pace, back in his 2nd and 3rd years. And despite the gaudy 70% completion rate (a career high) Allen doesn’t have the best touch. He’s like a golfer who can drive it past everyone, but struggles around the green. He needs to let it rip to hit his target. And if he’s a little off, the ball goes careening of his intended target’s hands (and often into the opponent’s). He’s also got a little Favre in him (don’t think too hard about that), the belief that, “if I just throw it hard enough, I can stuff it in there” (seriously, stop it). It must be tempting to lean on arm strength when the chips are down, he’s just got to remember that wisdom is the better part of valor. I think Buffalo will still make the playoffs, but that Super Bowl window is tightening by the day.

Just a brief word about the Lions since I am running long: It was good to bounce back with a win, but that’s the third time the defense absolutely could not stop an opponent (Seattle and Baltimore are the other two). The D has been solid to great in the other six games, but so much seems to hinge on getting pressure on the quarterback. To address that occasional problem, the Lions added veteran pass rusher Bruce Irvin to the defensive line corps. Irvin is 36 and only produced 3.5 sacks in 11 games last year for Carolina, but beggars can’t be choosers and there aren’t a lot of choices at this point in the year. Aaron Glenn has proved adept at fixing problems as they arise so far, and the schedule does lighten up considerably. That said, the Vikings games have become pretty important in light of their five game win streak, so even next week’s Bear’s game, although on its face an easy win, will require focus if the Lions don’t want to face must-win contests at the end of the year. Texas A&M is making noises about trying to hire Texas boy (and A&M alum) Dan Campbell, and although he appears to have zero interest, you can bet a contract extension is coming down the line from Lions owner Sheila Ford Hamp. Now’s the time to earn that hypothetical offer.