Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.

Well, well, well! Looks like, as with most things, I’m terrible at predictions. I got exactly one of the final four teams right, although I did manage to pick one of the two wildcard games. I correctly picked the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals, but in a close game 5 that ended with a man on first and the Giants down by one when the 1st base ump called Wilmer Flores out on a check swing, the Dodgers ousted the Giants. Replays showed that Flores definitely did not swing, but that is a non reviewable play, so the game ended on a sour note, especially for San Francisco. Now, the likelihood of Flores escaping that 0-2 count and the Giants getting a run across the plate was fairly low. ESPN’s gamecast had the probability of a Dodgers win when Flores strode to the plate at 91.9%, and it would have to have been even less once the count reached no balls and two strikes, but you just hate to end the game on a missed call. It certainly isn’t impossible for a double or a home run, or even just a single, walk, or error to still happen in that at bat; players recover from 0-2 regularly. How regularly? On base percentage across baseball in 2021 when in an 0-2 count was .187. Not the most likely thing, but certainly possible. Regardless, the Dodgers won and move on to face the Braves, the worst team (by record and 64tacos power ranking) to get into the playoffs. They bounced back from an opening game loss to win 3 in a row and go for one more send the Brewers packing.

In the A.L., I bet on the wrong horse (Gerrit Cole, who was terrible: 2 IP, 4H, 3 ER) because Eovaldi was the dominant one (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K). Then I was wrong again when the Red Sox did the same thing that Atlanta did to Milwaukee and bounced back from a game 1 loss to eliminate Tampa in 4. After shutting out Boston in the opener, Tampa Bay gave up 26 runs in the three subsequent contests while only scoring 15 themselves. 5 runs a game for the series is perfectly acceptable, but you also have to pitch. After game 1, the Rays kinda didn’t. But I finally got a second pick right when the Astros breezed by the White Sox in 4. Chicago’s pitching never held Houston under 6 runs and they themselves only once managed more than 4; not a great formula for victory.

With only four teams left, let’s see if I can get either of these match-ups right. I think the Giants and Dodgers were easily the two best teams this year, so the winner will have to move on against the Braves. I think L.A. will do it in 5 games and have plenty of time to rest up for the World Series. In the ALCS, I think Houston’s offense will be just a little too much for the Red Sox, but it will be close. Astros in 7. This sets up the World Series I think most impartial fans want to see: a rematch of the 2017 fall classic, Dodgers vs. Astros. That year, of course, Houston used their illegal sign stealing scheme, which resulted in firings and suspensions for multiple coaches and front office employees. Houston has been getting booed all year, and the added drama should make for great competition, with the Dodgers wanting revenge and the Astros wanting to prove it wasn’t the cheating that won them the championship in ’17. I hope we see it for all those reasons, plus then I’d be right, which I also enjoy.

A note on the chart below; we’ve opted to show only the 10 playoff teams since they are the only ones to add points to their score. Also, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams listed are the only ones still alive. These are in order by score. 5-10, the eliminated playoff teams, are also in order by score, excluding the surviving teams. The rank, however, reflects their overall updated position among all teams. There, you’ve been Avril-ed.

[table id=157 /]