Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.

Baseball is back after the All-star game! Let’s spend the next number of weeks taking a tour of each division now that we’re well past the actual halfway point (and just past the official one). We will begin in the A.L. East. The average 64tacos power ranking for the 5 teams (Boston Red Sox: 4th, Tampa Bay Rays: 5th, New York Yankees: 11th, Toronto Blue Jays: 12th, and Baltimore Orioles: 29th) is 12.2. This is tied for the best with any division right now (A.L. West is also at 12.2). The total win percentage for the division is .515 (241-227), best in the league. The aggregate run differential is +98, which is second best. FanGraphs puts the playoff odds for each team as follows: Boston – 88.4%, Tampa Bay – 67.8%, New York – 40.9%, Toronto – 38.2%, Baltimore – 0.0%.

The story here is an evenly balanced top 4, without a dominant team, and one terrible cellar dweller. You might say the Red Sox are the best since they are currently in 1st, but they only have the 3rd best run differential (+60). The Blue Jays, who are 4th in playoff odds in the division, have the best run differential (+86). New York had the best team on paper before the season, but they have barely managed a positive run differential 93 games into the season (+9). It looks like probably Boston (but maybe the Rays) will win the division and the three other teams will be fighting it out with Oakland out west for the 2 available wildcard slots. There’s not a ton of drama in the A.L. outside of this division, but this will be fascinating to watch down the stretch. I predict one of these four will fade down the stretch, but the most likely suspect, the Yankees, have come out of the break 3-1 and have moved up 4 spots in our rankings, the biggest move in an abbreviated week. Of course, they just had a Covid outbreak and are down 6 players, including Aaron Judge, their best hitter all year, so the next couple of weeks could be make or break for New York this year.

Quick Tigers update: 5 wins in a row coming out of the break. They’ve outscored their opponents 31-5 and are inching closer to .500. Of course, the opponents in question were the Twins (25th) and the Rangers (27th), so it may be fool’s gold. However, the next 12 games are against the Rangers, Royals (26th), Twins again, and Baltimore (29th), so I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 9-3 record, which would get them to 54-54. More good starts from Mize and Skubal (and Manning goes tonight), but unfortunately Spencer Turnbull, who dominated earlier this year and even threw a no-hitter, is having Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. The recovery time is between 12-18 months, so he will likely miss all of next year as well. 2023 is the year I believe the Tigers will contend, so hopefully he can return at full strength and help Detroit make a long awaited playoff run.

[table id=140 /]