Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
With the division winners all but decided (almost there, Atlanta), the wildcard is where the action is with just 3 weeks left in the regular season. In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies are fading (from a 30.3% chance to a 14.2% chance; all Playoff Odds per FanGraphs) and the St. Louis Cardinals are surging back to life (from 4.7% last week at this time to 31.9% as of today). The Cards are also moving up in our rankings, up 5 spots to #14, the biggest move by any team in quite a few weeks. A 6-1 week against the likes of Cincinnati (#13) and the Mets (#19), who are fellow wildcard hopefuls, and the Dodgers (#2), who are just a great team, have the new second place team in the N.L. Central sniffing the postseason.
In the A.L., the fun is all happening in the mighty East. Toronto (#8), winners of 15 out of 17 before falling to Tampa Bay last night, have moved into second place in the standings and into pole position in the playoff odds. At 68.9%, the Jays are just ahead of Boston (67.5%) and the Yankees (59.9%). Although the Red Sox are ahead in our rankings at #6 and the Yankees just behind at #9, Toronto looks like the team to beat. Oakland and Seattle, tied at #10, are still alive, but it is looking increasingly like the East will send 3 teams to the postseason this year.
In Motown, a 5-1 week featuring 5 games against Tampa Bay (#3) and Milwaukee (#4) has the Tigers feeling pretty good and up one spot to #21. Outscoring the opposition 30 to 20 and winning 2 games in extra innings last week, Detroit has an opportunity to finish a very tough schedule on a high note. 10 games against the Rays and White Sox (#7) are somewhat balanced by 6 games against the Royals (#22) and Twins (#24).
Miguel Cabrera record watch has been one of many highlights of a surprisingly good year for the Tigers, as he has eclipsed 500 HRs and approaches 3000 hits and 600 doubles (less heralded than the other two stats, but only 17 players have ever managed the feat, making it more exclusive than 3K hits (32 players) and 500 club (28 players). Will Cabrera be a useful player next year? It all comes down to the adjustments he can make to the decline that age and injuries have initiated. He got off to a very slow start this year (during April and May: .184/.265/.279 for a OPS of just .544) , but since has bounced back to a more respectable .298/.363/.457 with an OPS of .820 in June, July, August, and September. This is not production which justifies his massive salary, but let’s extrapolate that post-May pace over the course of 600 at bats (he won’t get there next year because he’ll be rested regularly, but for full season comparison purposes, we’ll go with 600) That would give him a stat line of .298 batting average, .363 on base %, .457 slugging %, .820 on base plus slugging, 23 HR, 26 doubles, 111 RBI, 51 BB, 151K, and 174 hits. Not quite vintage Cabrera (in 2013, arguably his best year, in 555 at bats he slashed .348/.442/.636 for an OPS of 1.078 and produced 44 HR, 26 doubles, 137 RBI, 90 BB, 94K, and 193 hits; just ridiculous numbers), but I bet every Tigers fan would absolutely take that in a heartbeat. If he can avoid a slow start next year and stays healthy, he can be a contributing member of the heart of the order and help the young and improving Tigers on the scorecard as well as the clubhouse.
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