Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
It’s the penultimate regular season power rankings; time to look at playoff situation one last time before we have all the answers. In the senior circuit, the only one yet to be answered is whether the Phillies can catch the Braves. Losing 2-1 last night in Atlanta has dropped the Phillies’ chances from 13.4% to 3.9%, but they still have two games left in the series (playoff odds courtesy of FanGraphs) . Win both and they could be within 1.5 games with three to go. Still highly unlikely, but reasonable. In other N.L. news, the Padres completed their epic collapse. On August 10th, the Padres were 18 games over .500 at 67-49 with their playoff odds at 80.2%. They were 9 games ahead of a 56-56 St. Louis team who would eventually overtake them in spite of holding just a 1.4% chance at the time. San Diego went 11-30, and St. Louis has just reeled off 17 wins in a row. How excited do you think the Dodgers or Giants (whoever loses out on the division) are to have to play the Cards in a one game playoff after winning well over 100 games each?
The only competitive race is in the A.L., where the Yankees are winning when it matters most. 7 wins in a row has greatly improved New York’s playoff stock, up to 92.8%. After that great run when they managed to get all the way up into second, the Blue Jays are down to fourth in the division and 18.1% odds. However, they have games against the Yankees today and tomorrow, and if they sweep those two, they’ll be just 1 game behind New York. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still looking decent despite 4 losses in a row at 73.5%. They have an easy schedule (Baltimore and Washington) and whoever wins between the Jays and Yanks, Boston is closer to clinching. Oakland has faded and are essentially eliminated, but somehow the Mariners have won 9 of their last 10 and have a 15.2% chance of sliding into the wildcard round. Yes, they still have a negative run differential (-50), but wins are what really counts, and after one more hosting Oakland, 3 games at home against the very beatable Angels remain. It’s been a very exciting playoff race this year, even though two divisions (N.L. West and A.L. East) have been clearly the best, we’ve had some surprises like Milwaukee and St. Louis to keep things interesting.
Three tough 1-run losses have hampered the Tigers run at .500 and second place in the division, although the latter is still possible. The only real fun left is speculating about who Detroit will sign in the offseason and who has earned a spot for next year among the young prospects. Nobody has convincingly claimed shortstop or catcher, so I might look for either of both on the free agent market. There are a lot of quality options at SS in particular (Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Andrelton Simmons, Trevor Story, and Marcus Semien come to mind), and I’d love for Chris Illitch to open up the purse strings for Correa, Seager, Story, or Semien, although any of the above would be a big upgrade. Fewer options out there for catching, but Haase has been solid and Dillon Dingler is a solid prospect, if a couple of years away. Really too bad Jake Rogers needed Tommy John surgery, because he was playing pretty well and will now likely miss all of next year as well. Dustin Garneau and Grayson Greiner have been OK, but not very inspiring. Pitching, particularly the bullpen is another place to look. Fulmer, Funkhouser, Cisneros, and Soto are clearly part of the plan going forward, but others have been up and down and will have to have a good spring to claim a spot for next year. With the injuries to Turnbull (out for next year after Tommy John surgery) and Boyd (out until midseason, fortunately not Tommy John), starting pitching could use a veteran boost to go along with the youth movement, maybe even a return for Justin Verlander as he returns from his own Tommy John surgery. The fans would love it and he has spoken about his desire to do so and reunite with A.J. Hinch, his former manager in Houston. Come on, Big Al, make it happen!
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