Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Time for MLB power rankings! This week we’ll take a look at the A.L. Central division’s five teams, including the Tigers. We’ll compare where they sit in our list compared to some other measures. At the top of the division are the Chicago White Sox. Sitting at #5 in our rankings, the White Sox have the 4th best winning percentage in MLB. They have the second best run differential, just one run (+79) behind the Padres league leading +80. Thus, their expected record is actually 37-18, 4 games better than their actual 33-22. If we take a look at strength of schedule, they land at 17th with an opponent winning percentage of .499. A possible reason for Chicago’s underperformance is their 5-7 record in 1-run games and their 0-3 record in extra innings.
Cleveland is currently second in the division with a 30-24 record. Their expected record is just 26-28, thanks to a -6 run differential. Their win percentage is tied for 10th with Houston, which matches their 10th place spot in our rankings. They’ve played a tougher schedule than the Sox (.506, 11th) and have fared better in close games as well (8-6 in 1-run games and 4-2 in extras). They have perhaps gotten a little lucky this year, but our rankings back up their actual record, just like the White Sox unexpectedly low won-loss record is confirmed by their position on our list.
At 27-26, the Kansas City Royals have steadied the ship after an 11 game losing streak, bouncing back with an 11-6 record since May 14th. We have them at 16th, exactly where their winning percentage puts them. However, their -14 run differential gives them an expected record of 25-28, and their opponent’s .499 win percentage is exactly the same as the White Sox’s (17th). Nothing special about their record in close games (8-7 in 1-run and 1-1 in extra innings). Kind of tough to figure out the Royals, who have sandwiched a stellar 27-15 record around an 11 game losing streak.
In fourth, we find the Detroit Tigers, who are 23-32. A 5-2 week, including a sweep of the Yankees, has boosted the Tigers up to 23rd, up 4 spots in our rankings. Their winning percentage is 24th best, but their expected record is 21-34 (28th) thanks to their shrinking (but still poor) -52 run differential. Detroit is actually 14-8 in their last 22, with big improvements in both hitting and pitching. Is this a false dawn? We’ll see. They have played the 8th toughest schedule (.507) and are 8-8 in 1-run games and 4-1 in extras. I don’t think 14-8 is quite reflective of the team, but they may well be a .500 team, something most Tiger fans would have taken in a heartbeat at the beginning of the season.
Just half a game back at 22-32 (and in last place) are the Minnesota Twins. Their -24 run differential, while not great, would give them a slightly better expected record of 25-29, 20th in baseball. Their record is 25th as far a winning percentage, and we have them at 26th. They have had the easiest schedule in the Central (.490, 23rd overall), so Twins fans had better hope that their awful 2-8 record in extra innings is disguising their quality, because tough opposition hasn’t. They are 8-8 in 1-run games, so extras seem to be the real problem. Their have been terrible as a pitching staff all year (26th in runs allowed), so this may be the source of their extra inning issues. I expect they will improve, but this has certainly been a disappointing year for Minnesota.
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