Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
The NBA regular season has just ended and tonight we begin the play-in round. Let’s briefly look back at the regular season, remind ourselves how the play-in rounds actually works, and then make some predictions! First up, the regular season. Not too many surprises at the end here; the Suns kept pulling away from the pack, the Grizzlies were a clear second, and then the next six teams (the Warriors, Heat, Mavs, 76ers, Celtics, and Bucks) were pretty close to each other. In my opinion, those are the eight teams that have a legitimate chance of winning the title. After that it’s all long shots. Did all the right teams get in? Our rankings say… well, almost. The first 19 teams in our rankings got in, but the Spurs sneaked into the 10th spot out west. We had the Knicks at #20 and the Spurs all the way down at #22. Curiously, 22nd is where they slot in record-wise as well. In fact, somehow our rankings are in the exact order of winning percentage despite the unbalanced schedule the NBA employs. Are the Spurs worse than the Knicks? Maybe, but it is interesting to note that the 34-48 S.A. had a positive point point differential this year (+0.2), which was not only better that that of the Knicks (-0.1), but also than that of a couple of higher seeded playoff teams in the 42-40 Clippers (-0.0) and the 46-34 Bulls (-0.4).
Also interesting is that this year the deeper conference was the East. For years and years it’s been tougher to get into the playoffs out in the Western Conference, but this year’s worst qualifiers in the Eastern Conference were #16 Charlotte and #17 Atlanta at 43-39. The three worst in the West were the #18 Clippers, the #20 Pelicans, and the # 22 Spurs, none of whom would have gotten into the Eastern bracket. A quick note on the Pistons: Detroit managed to lose their last three games, ensuring maximum odds for the #1 draft pick, so although losing is obviously bad, the Pistons managed to balance progress with draft position as well as could have been expected.
The somewhat convoluted play-in round structure is as follows: #7 and #8 play each other and the winner is the seventh seed. The loser is still alive. #9 and #10 play each other and the loser is eliminated. The winner plays the loser of the #7 vs. #8 matchup, and the winner of than final game is the eighth seed. So if you finish seventh or eighth, you get two chances to win a game to get in, with better positioning available if you win the first game. If you finish ninth or tenth, best you can do in the eight seed and to do that you have to win two games in a row. Kind of complicated, but I like it! The higher seed gets home court in each game, so each position has an advantage over the one lower than it. But the ninth and tenth teams, who would not have qualified in the past, have to win two to make it, the second of which is a guaranteed road game. This means that now 2/3 of the league has something to play for, and the top 12 spots are truly coveted because it gets you a full series of games to play. Not bad, NBA, now just add the in-season soccer-style tournament you’ve been talking about and you’ll be the most interesting and innovative american sports league by a wide margin.
On to the predictions. In the Eastern Conference #7/#8 match-up, we have #14 Brooklyn vs. #15 Cleveland. Even with Ben Simmons availability up in the air and the disappointing play from the Nets recently, I think Kyrie Irving (now available for home games in NYC) and Kevin Durant are too good at getting buckets in isolation when you really need them, a key playoff skill. Brooklyn has the two best players in this game, so I’ll play it safe and choose Brooklyn.
Out west, #7/#8 features #12 Minnesota vs. #18 L.A. Clippers. This somewhat depends on the availability of Kawhi Leonard, who has been out all season but may be available for the playoffs. With apologies to Paul George, he’s the best player on the Clippers and a proven playoff performer in both S.A. and Toronto, but who knows how useful he’ll be after being missing for the entire year. I’m not convinced by the T-Wolves yet, but I’ll trust our rankings here and give the edge to Minnesota.
Back out east for #9/#10, we have #16 Charlotte vs. #17 Atlanta. Although Charlotte is stocked with young and exciting players and can score like crazy, they can’t play any defense and the Hawks have playoff experience on their roster that the Hornets can’t match. This one’s close, but I’ll give the advantage to Atlanta.
The last match-up is #9/#10 in the Western Conference: #20 New Orleans vs. #22 San Antonio. Both of these teams have records that really don’t merit this playoff opportunity, but at least the Spurs have outscored their opponents this year, even if they haven’t shown an ability to close out games well. But S.A. had one of the game’s best coaches in Greg Popovich, and that combined with the Spurs getting their best player (Dejounte Murray) back from injury makes me lean towards San Antonio.
We’ll return with first round predictions after the play-in round.
Play-in teams:
[table id=203 /]
End of regular season:
[table id=202 /]