Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Wild card week is over and we are moving on to the divisional round. Sorry, “super wild card week”, ’cause now we have six teams, which is super, not like four, which is nothing. Not sure we can officially call this upcoming round super or not, but let’s definitely not. There were really only two competitive games last week, and only one upset (at least by seed). The upset was #8 San Francisco beating the Dallas Cowboys 23-17 in a game which included an ending that could be described as a little bonkers by a neutral observer, or a disaster by Cowboys’ fans, or entirely predictable by Green Bay fans. Mike McCarthy has a well earned reputation for not handling late game decisions well, such as clock management for a pertinent example. However, his teams have always won a lot of games. Detractors may point out he only won a single Super Bowl in 13 years with one of the greatest QBs ever, which is fair, but I’d say has as much to do with the front office valuing consistent yearly quality over maximizing the number of titles accrued. They draft with an eye on the future and assume that Aaron Rodgers (and Brett Favre before him) could make the most of the late round offensive weapons they were handed at the skill positions.
And they were mostly right. The Packers are always good, sometimes great, and are considered one of the model franchises in the league. But again, two titles (in ’96 with Favre and ’10 with Rodgers) in thirty years of two of the top ten quarterbacks ever isn’t a great return. That’s Eli Manning with the Giants. Favre and Rodgers are a little better than Second Manning. Feels like they should have had more. And they rarely sign expensive free agents in an effort to get there. You know, like Tampa did last year. Worked out OK for them, I’d say. Seems like maximizing the end of a Hall of Fame quarterback’s career might be a decent idea (Although who even knows of this is near the end for the Brady 3000, who’s presumably an alien-created football robot sent as scout for our inevitably doomed struggle against our soon-to-be extra-terrestrial rulers. Or maybe he’s onto something with TB12. I think I find the former slightly more credible than the latter). Also, the Rodgers soap opera last off-season came directly from these same decisions, like choosing Jordan Love, his presumed successor, instead of a wide receiver or tight end to help them win now, in the closing chapter of his career.
Anyway, back to the Cowboys. The final play was a QB sneak with 14 seconds left and zero timeouts for Dallas. Now, in a perfect world, I kind of love this play-call. The Cowboys were on the 41 yard line and were staring at an extremely low probability Hail Mary attempt. S.F. lined up their defensive backs along both sidelines because they knew Dallas was out of timeouts. This opened up the middle of the field, and Dak Prescott was able to easily scamper for 17 yards and slide down with about 8 seconds left. The idea was to spike the ball and run an actual football play from the 24. But, of course, they never got that chance, because by the time the official spotted the ball, there was no time for the snap and spike. The Cowboys seemed to blame the official in interviews after the game, and I do think there should have been a review from the booth on whether they got it spiked in time (apparently not allowed under the NFL’s byzantine replay rules). But it’s pretty clear they didn’t get it off anyway. The problem with the play wasn’t the idea, and it’s a play the Cowboys practice regularly. It’s the time on the clock. Kellen Moore, the offensive coordinator, clearly thought they could get in done in 14 seconds. Maybe if Dak slides at the 30 yard line, or if the official was either faster or closer to the play in anticipation of this gambit (or if just they’d handed the ball to the poor sprinting old man instead of putting it on the ground and effectively pass blocking him), this might have worked. Maybe then Dak tosses a TD and everyone’s a genius. But there were just too many variables, each of which cost the Cowboys a fraction of second, and the end result was that they were about a full second short of getting that last shot at the victory. And it wasn’t the official or the rules that cost them, it was trying to cram a running play in when everything had to be perfect for it to work. It wasn’t perfect and it didn’t work, and although it was unlikely they were going to win anyway (ESPN had a 96.2% chance of a 49er victory before that play), it’s attempt and failure made the coaching staff look pretty bad. Look at it this way: as Neil would say it, it’s like in D&D. When fighting an evil and powerful adversary, rolling a 20 is certainly possible, if unlikely. While not rolling at all means you’re definitely not hitting that red dragon.
The other close one was Cincy-Vegas, and although the Raiders lost 26-19 on a 4th down interception from the Cincinnati 9 with 17 seconds left, I really think Rich Bisaccia deserved to have the interim removed from his job title. I think he’s earned it, but you never know what Mark Davis will do. I feel like he’s probably going to offer big money to somebody like Jim Harbaugh, currently at U of M, or maybe try to lure Bill Cowher out from behind his CBS desk with another 10 year/100 million dollar contract, rather than play it safe. His firing of Mike Mayock as G.M. supports the idea that he’s looking to start over. We’ll have to see. In the other games, #1T Tampa Bay blew out the Eagles 31-15 in a game that was nowhere near that close. #7 Buffalo scored touchdowns on all seven actual drives of the game in a 47-17 demolishing of the Patriots. The other #1, Kansas City had no issues with Pittsburgh, doubling them up 42-21. And Stafford finally won a playoff game! The #4 Rams blitzed the Cardinals early, leading 21-0 en route to a 34-11 romp. And that was the first round. I wish we’d had some more close games, but the two we got were real barn-burners. On to next week! Predictions will be handled by the Great Stemshul.
Note: Only the teams remaining in the playoffs are shown, but their rank is that among all 32 teams. Obviously, playing more games will push these teams up the rankings, but we will do a final ranking after the season is over. And of course, the #1 seeds not playing in the first round is a disadvantage, so maybe we’ll address that going forward. Or maybe not. We do what we want!
[table id=186 /]
