Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Let’s talk about the Dolphins! Yup, the Dolphins. Not only do they have one of the best uniforms in the NFL, but they are actually our biggest riser (along with Las Vegas), up 6 spots to #22-T. Just 3 weeks ago, Miami was mired in 30th, but thanks to a 4 game win streak, the Dolphins are actually kind of maybe still alive for the playoffs. Yes, they are currently 13th in the conference, but the Chargers, who are the last team in as of today, are only 6-5, so the 5-7 Dolphins only 1.5 games back. Unlikely, but are any of the teams contending for the wild card convincing? The current rivals include Cincinnati (#12-T), Buffalo (#11), L.A. Chargers (#10), Las Vegas (#12-T), Denver (#16), Indianapolis (#18), Pittsburgh (#14), and Cleveland (#17). Our rankings say Miami has the worst shot, but their next three games are against the Giants (#24), Jets (#29), and Saints (#20). They have two tough ones to end the season (#6 Titans and #8 Patriots), but those teams may well be resting starters by that point in the year. If they win the (very winnable) next three, they’ll give themselves a shot.
Even a 9-8 or 8-9 record this year would do wonders for a team who started out 1-7 and seemingly considered bailing out on their franchise quarterback to be, Tua Tagovailoa, while pursuing a trade for the talented but legally radioactive Deshaun Watson. The trade never happened, but confidence in Tua on an organizational level was in doubt. Injuries also kept him on the sidelines, but the Dolphins are 3-3 when he starts (if you don’t count the 4 pass attempts before he was injured in the Buffalo game week 2 as a start, anyway), and he has outperformed backup Jacoby Brissett in very similar playing time. QB rating is a flawed stat, but Tua has the advantage (94.7 to 78.1) and combined with the 4-3 record in games he completed as compared to 1-4 for Brissett, I’d say he’s been the better player. I gave Tua credit for the win against Baltimore in week 10 because he came in for Brissett in the 3rd quarter and the Dolphins scored 16 points (vs. 6 for Brissett) in the 4th for their best win of the year. Yes, 7 of those points were on a fumble return for a touchdown, but the game turned when Tua came on. Head coach Brian Flores was probably worried about his job status despite last year’s 10-6 record, but that awful start caused the positive momentum to vanish. Now he’s likely to be given another year to get it done. Done in this case meaning their first playoff berth since 2016, which would be just their third since 2001. I have them as a sleeper pick to make the playoffs, especially if they win the next three.
Happy Thanksgiving and here’s some more Lions’ misery to accompany your turkey day. Detroit held another late lead, but (for the 3rd time this year) managed to lose on the last kick of the game. This one carried very little suspense, as the Bears drove it all the way down to the Lions’ 4 yard line before 3 kneel downs and a 28 yard field goal as time expired. Detroit’s defense was great all day, but couldn’t stop the 8+ minute drive to end the game by Chicago. The blame rests more on the offense, who couldn’t get a scoring drive out of being at midfield in the 4th with the lead, thanks to three consecutive penalties which led to a 3rd and 32 (their second 3rd and 32 of the game). With Campbell taking over play calling (to mixed results), the writing is on the wall for offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, who hasn’t been able to make much out of this skill position deficient offense. But neither has Campbell, so who knows if anything more is possible regardless of play calling. The good news: the staff hasn’t lost the players despite the 11 non-wins. The Lions are also getting good marks for player development, something necessitated by injuries and lack of depth. The bad news is that they can’t make the plays when it counts the most. I’d say they should have won 3 or 4 games by now, but bad decisions, sloppy penalties, bad luck, and poor execution have all led us here. No way Detroit fires the head coach after just one season, but next year better look a lot better than the dumpster fire we’ve seen so far.
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