Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Let’s talk about the bottom of the rankings. Most of the year it’s been pretty clear that the Houston Texans are not good. They’ve only managed one win and one tie and have been loitering at or near the bottom of our rankings basically all year. Are they actually the worst team? They’ve been joined in the F-tier by Chicago and Denver, so let’s see if the Bears or Broncos want the crown.
The Texans are two wins adrift and well behind their tier-mates in ranking points accumulated (-543 for the Bears, -594 for the Broncos, and -823 for the Texans). How about their performance on each side of the ball? Chicago produces 329.8 yards (22nd) and 20.8 points per game (19th) and Houston manages 283.0 YPG (last) and 16.2 PPG (30th). Denver (315.5 YPG, which is 27th and 14.9 PPG, which is last) is the lowest scoring team, and a little bonus for scoring very inefficiently relative to their yards gained.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears are 19th at 350.5 yards allowed per game but 29th in points allowed per game at 25.6. The Broncos are 7th in YPG allowed with 314.3 and 4th in PPG allowed at 18.3. The Texans come in at 29th (380.2 YPG allowed) and 26th (24.2 PPG allowed) respectively.
What does all this mean? Chicago is mediocre but not awful on offense and mediocre AND awful at defense. They don’t give up enough yards to really justify their propensity to allow points, but that’s likely why they only have three wins despite playing more like a low mid-level team. Houston is really bad at everything across the board. And Denver has a great defense and an equally terrible offense. Considering how little help their offense gives them, they may have the best defense in the league.
The tiebreaker in the NFL is usually the quarterback. The Bears believe they have their QB in Justin Fields, and while he’s a spectacular runner, he’s unproven with his arm. Houston cut loose their franchise QB and are hoping to find the next one in the offseason (probably Alabama’s Bryce Young). Denver thought they finally found the solution with Russel Wilson, but he’s been awful this year. Will he be better next year? Or is he washed up? I’d say the Broncos are pretty close to being a good team, and Chicago is a year or two ahead of the Texans. All of which is to say…yup, the team with the worst record is the worst team. Assumptions confirmed!
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