Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
The topsy-turvy year continues, best exemplified by the then #2 Cardinals, tied for the best record with Tampa, somehow losing to the then #32 Lions, who had the worst record in the league. More on that later. The Buccaneers, #1 last week, also lost to a slightly less embarassing team, the at-the-time #18T Saints. Now the Bucs and Cards have dropped behind new #1 Green Bay and new #2 Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 7 games on the trot, so surely they’re back to their best, right? Super Bowl favorites? The team to beat? I’m not so sure. While the offense has been better lately and the defense has been good after a terrible start, they don’t look as dominant as they have for the last few years. Are they better than their 3-4 start? Yes, that seems obvious. Are they as good as their 7 game win streak? I’d say no.
The offense has struggled against two high coverage this year, which is to say keeping two safeties deep to protect against the big play. You end up conceding more in the run game without the safeties to support the front 7, but you protect against Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill getting loose. This isn’t brand new; teams began to use it more often last year and (especially) this year. In 2018, Kansas City had 18 plays of 40+ yards. In 2019, it was 15. Last year it was down to 8, but the Chiefs managed 69 20+ yard plays, 2nd only to the Titans’ 70. This year (through 14 games) they have 8 again, but only 50 20+ yard plays, down to 8th. Still a good offense, but not nearly as explosive. And some teams found ways to shut them down during this win streak. The Chiefs have averaged 28.1 PPG during this stretch, but two of those games (in which KC scored 99 points) were against the Raiders, who for some reason used very little two high coverage. And against the Chargers, they only really got going after L.A. safety and defensive leader Derwin James left the game in the 3rd (Kansas City scored 21 of their 34 points in the 4th quarter and overtime). If you take out those three games, they’re only averaged 18.5 PPG since they ‘turned it around’. It hasn’t been the offense, but rather turnovers which have been the real key to their improvement. During the first seven games (in which they went 3-4), they had 17 turnovers and forced 7, for a minus 10 differential. In the last seven (7-0), it’s been 8 for and 18 against for a plus 10 differential. Turnovers are unpredictable and that added element of chance plus the ability for teams to game plan to take away the big, momentum swinging plays means they Chiefs are vulnerable once the playoffs begin this year. They’ll likely win the division and probably make a playoff run. But I’d be surprised if they even make the Super Bowl, much less win it.
Hey how about those Lions? 2-3-1 in their last 6, which is about the team I expected this year. I really underestimated the new (and new to being a head coach) coaching factor. But their play lately has me generally optimistic. Especially Sunday’s domination (!) of the Cardinals. I mean, Arizona was never in the game. Outside of one fumble, which was nearly immediately followed by a spectacular interception by Amani Oruwariye, the team didn’t really put a foot wrong. Goff was, and I can’t believe I’m typing this, amazing and helped the Lions completely dominate the first half to the tune of 17-0. Craig Reynolds, not even on the radar in training camp, ran 26 times for 112 yards. The offensive line was dominant. Charles Harris had one of the better games you’ll see from a defensive end, with 12 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 3 tackles for a loss. The defense was constantly in Kyler Murray’s face, with 8 passes defensed, many of which were knockdowns at the line. I can’t remember a better performance, maybe the 45-10 blowout of the Broncos in 2011. But that was against Tim Tebow, so I’m not sure that counts. I said they would’t win this game, but I was glad to be wrong. Maybe we can grab a couple more in the last three? One can dream.
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