Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Just two games left in the regular season and there are still 6 NFC teams alive for the last two available berths. Sounds pretty exciting, but let’s look aver at the AFC for a sec. Only one team (the #2 Chiefs) have clinched a playoff spot. And only three teams (the #29 Jets, the #30 Texans, and the #32 Jaguars) have been eliminated. That means there are 12 (!) teams still competing for 6 spots. Only one division has been decided. From #6 Tennessee at 10-5 down to #20 Cleveland and #23 Denver, both at 7-8, anything could happen. Based on how this year has gone, I wouldn’t put money on anybody (or against anybody, for that matter). Two of the most surprising contenders are Indianapolis and Miami. Let’s take a closer look.
Indy was at one point this year 1-4. That had them down at #26 in our rankings. Since then, they have gone 8-2, losing only to the Titans in overtime and to the Buccaneers (in a game when they had the ball at the Tampa 32 with 10 seconds left down 7). They could have won each of those games, but they did win the other 8 games they’ve played since that awful start. Yes, they played the Jets, Jacksonville, and Houston, but they also beat San Francisco (#16), Buffalo (#10), New England (#8), and Arizona (#7). Jonathan Taylor has been incredible, leading the league in rushing with 1,626 yards at 5.5 yards/carry and 17 TDs. The Colts are second only to the Eagles in rushing yards, and fifth in points/game at 28.0. But when Carson Wentz is your quarterback, there’s going to be some doubt about your team. If the opponent takes away the run by stacking the box (as seems quite likely), will Wentz be able to make enough plays and avoid big mistakes? Recent history says no, but Tennessee rode Derrick Henry and a less than elite Ryan Tannehill all the way to the AFC championship game a couple of years ago, so I do think they have a playoff run in them. Maybe.
Miami is an even more unlikely playoff aspirant. The Dolphins were 1-7 and #29 in our rankings two months in. All they’ve done since is win 7 in a row (immediately after losing 7 straight). Craziness! I love how weird this year is! Now, the schedule has been pretty easy. Baltimore is the only really decent win mixed in there. Last week’s win at the Saints would be more impressive if it hadn’t come against Ian Book, the Saints fifth string QB who had never played a snap in the NFL before. He was predictably poor and Miami won almost by default. The next two games are tough, with both Tennessee and New England having plenty to play for. So I don’t think they’ll make it. But they have a chance! In fact, if the season ended today, Miami would be in as the 7th seed, qualifying via tiebreakers against the Ravens, Chargers, and Raiders (all three are in a 4-way tie with Cincy at #11). You never know, especially this year.
Detroit had a pretty much perfect loss on Sunday. They out gained Atlanta 338-254, dominated time of possession (38:05 to 21:55), and nearly won the game, all with Tim Boyle, Goff’s backup. They had the ball, goal to go with less than a minute left and only down 4, but a Boyle INT on first down gave the Falcons the win. Thanks to victories from the Jets and the Texans, the Lions have all but sewn up one of the top two picks in the draft. If you’re going to lose, this is the way to do it.
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