Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
The penultimate week of the regular season is in the books, and it looks like Green Bay is the best team in the league. They’ve opened up a sizable gap on #2 Tampa and have the hapless (but optimistic) Lions next week. Who knows if Rogers even plays; unless the Packers think sitting out will two weeks in a row will throw off the offense’s rhythm, he probably should, because the Packers have sewed up home-field throughout the playoffs along with the (now) rare first round bye. Remember that 38-3 loss to the Saints (now #17) week 1? Feels like ancient history now. Now, having the best record and topping our rankings sure makes them look like the best team. But are they?
Well, the case for yes could be supported by their 4-0 record against the mighty NFC West, beating teams like the Rams (#4), the Cardinals (#5), the 49ers (#15), and the Seahawks (#26). That last one isn’t too impressive, and neither is their own division, the NFC North, probably the worst in football. Green Bay is 4-1 against the likes of Minnesota (#20), Chicago (#25), and the Lions (#31). How they managed to lose to the Vikings is a bit of a mystery (one Stemshul might explain with the “division games are always tough” theory, which has some merit), but their other loss was against the #3 Chiefs in Arrowhead, which certainly is defensible. My case for no would be that they have only the 10th best point differential, just behind #10 Cincy and just ahead of #18 Philly. Plus, for as good as Captain Technically-I-Didn’t-Lie-I-Said-I-Was-Immunized-Not-Vaccinated has been at QB this year, Green Bay is just 12th in yards per game and 10th in scoring, not to mention the two times this year they couldn’t even manage ten points (3 vs. the Saints and 7 vs. the Chiefs). Of course every team has had poor performances this year. But if the Pack are good but not great at offense AND good but not great on defense (11th in yards allowed and 8th in points allowed), they’re more like a well rounded but unexciting playoff caliber team than a runaway Super Bowl favorite. Verdict: not the best team. It’s likely one of the next three in our standings (Rams, Bucs, or Chiefs), but the reality is that this year is as wide open as any I can remember.
As far as the remaining playoff contenders, last week’s results eliminated quite a few. The NFC is down to 2 teams vying for the last spot, with S.F. only needing a win or a tie/loss from New Orleans to get in. A win gets them the 6th seed, but losses from both the 49ers and Saints would put surprising Eagles above the 49ers assuming they get a win against the #6 Cowboys. Over in the AFC, the #11 Colts, #14 Chargers, #11 Raiders, #13 Steelers, and free-falling #16 Ravens are all fighting for the last two spots. Indy and L.A. are in the driver’s seat, needing only to win to get in. Things get complicated if either or both lose. The Raiders get to take on the Chargers, and the fortunate Colts get Jacksonville. I think it’s safe to say Indianapolis is in (nothing unexpected has happened yet this year, right?). Should be a fun last weekend of football!
The Lions, as mentioned above, are facing Mr. Grumpy Pants and his cheese packing friends. But since G.B. has nothing to play for other than avoiding injuries, they have a chance for win number three. It would help if Goff returns, because Tim Boyle has proven to be an inept backup. Of course, a win means no #1 draft pick, but Detroit is guaranteed to be in the top two, and the top two rated prospects happen to play the same position, defensive end, which the Lions could certainly use. The Lions are tied for the second fewest sacks in the league this year with only 26, so the fact that there’s no highly rated quarterbacks coming out this year means that they have a great opportunity to address the second most important position in football, the pass rusher. Successful tanking! To be fair, the Lions played to win every week this year, so the players and coaches sure weren’t tanking. The fact that their draft position also worked out means this was an ideal first year of a rebuild.
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