This post is part of a series. Click here for the introduction. Click here for part 1. Click here for part 2. Click here for part 3. Click here for part 4.

So, having looked at the the ownership, management, coaching, and players in depth, what does the present (2021)and future (2023) look like for the Detroit Tigers? Well, so far the present is fairly abysmal (check out the current MLB power rankings). The Tigers can’t hit, mostly can’t pitch, and have easily the worst record and run differential in baseball. How important is this? Not necessarily very. Detroit is just starting to integrate its best prospects into the team and spending is currently pretty low. The Tigers are spending, depending how you calculate it, about $80 million this year, which is 23rd in the league (nearly half is going to Miguel Cabrera, but we already talked about that. Without him, they’d be under $50 million, around 28th). In 2017, they were essentially tied for 3rd with the Red Sox at nearly $200 million. So that’s some good progress in shedding salary. The more flexibility the team has in selecting free agents, the better. Doesn’t mean good decisions will be made, of course, but it gives you more options. As far as on-the-field performance, more losses is arguably better since the MLB draft goes in order of worst to best in terms of winning percentage. The counter argument is more ephemeral; players who only ever lose have their development hampered/don’t learn “winning habits”. This seems true, but is harder to prove than better draft position equals better prospect result. I don’t really have a problem with losing a lot of games this year IF the top prospects are doing well AND the penchant for sloppy play and bad decision making is at a minimum. You can control how hard you play and the choices you make on the field a hell of a lot more than natural talent. This demonstrates good coaching and good attitude and makes even a poor team worth watching (see the current Detroit Pistons team).

Yep, no doubt about it, the Tigers are a poor team this year. Are they a 48-114 team (their current pace based on their .294 winning percentage)? I don’t think so. The starting pitching has been decent, and two of their starters are rookies who have great upside and have been occasionally dominant this year (Skubal and Mize). The bullpen has been extremely bad. The fielding has been mostly solid (with the exception of an occasional disaster game) and a big improvement over last year. The hitting…well, there’s no defending the hitting this year so far. But it is unlikely to remain this bad all year. All the players, if they just manage to hit in shouting distance of their career averages, will improve with the bat. Cabrera, at age 38, probably won’t get near his career averages, but he recovered after a slow start last year to be a solid hitter (if not the force of nature he was in his prime). Even he he falls short of last year, he won’t keep hitting .149. Akil Baddoo is a complete unknown, having never played above Double A before, but contributions from him are just gravy since he wasn’t even supposed to make the roster this year. Already, the offense is perking up, with 32 runs scored in the last 5 games. I would have guessed in the 70-75 win zone before the season, but we have a 32 game sample to look at with that 48 win pace they’re currently on. I think I’ll say 64-98 as my prediction for the year. That will require a record of 54-74 the rest of the way, which feels about right. Avoiding 100 losses would be nice, and this should still net a top 5 pick in the 2022 draft.

What about in three years? This is tough. What it comes down to is that I don’t entirely trust Al Avila as a GM. Also, Chris Illitch is an unknown. Will he spend like his father did to take the team over the top? We’ll see. We have more track record on Avila, and it hasn’t been entirely great. His crop of prospects will probably determine the Tigers’ fate (and his). Of the four Detroit GMs (Yzerman, Holmes, Weaver, and Big Al), I trust him the least. I think I will predict a 90-72 record in 2023. The Tigers will be good, they’ll be competitive, but they won’t win the division and may not even garner a Wildcard spot. It may take a new decision maker to get them back to the World Series. I hope I’m wrong. Either way, I’ll be listening to find out. Ok, that’s a wrap on the Tigers! We will resume this series in the late summer when the NHL and NBA preseason get going. We can discuss Pistons and Red Wings right at the start of their seasons. See you then!