Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Once again, the weekend slate proved what I think we all suspected: I know nothing. The Giants and Vikings, my two most overrated teams, both won. The Giants beat another crap team, #32 Houston, so we’ve proved nothing there, really. Five of their seven wins have come against teams currently #18 or lower in our rankings. The 21-20 win at #10 Tennessee looks pretty decent, although it did come in an always volatile week 1. The real signature victory for N.Y. was 24-20 against #6 Baltimore was a bit of a gift thanks to a couple of late turnovers by the Ravens. Up next for the G-men are our very own Lions; make of that what you will. The schedule finally toughens up for them with games against Minnesota, Philly, Dallas, and Washington twice. Indianapolis rounds out their slate, and that may not be a gimme if the Colts rally around new coach Jeff Saturday.
I remain convinced that they will struggle in the second half. FiveThirtyEight ranks them 16th in ELO despite having the same record as the Chiefs (third best in the league). The same site only grants them a 76% chance to make the playoffs despite that sterling record, no doubt due to both the difficulty of their remaining schedule and to the relative strength of their division. Seriously, this was the worst division in football a couple of years ago. Now we have all four teams in the NFC East ranked in the top 13 (Eagles at #2, Giants at #7, Cowboys at #8, and Commanders at #13). The only division who can maybe compete is the AFC East (#3 Bills, #5 Dolphins, #9 Jets, and #14 Patriots). It’s hard to say which is better. The NFC East has accumulated 958 points in our ranking system vs. 857 for their AFC counterparts, but only the AFC East can boast winning records for all four teams. It will be interesting to see who comes out top at the end of the year.
Detroit does not have a winning record, but they are, however, on a winning streak! Stemshul has been fairly accurate in his preseason game by game predictions (although the less likely part, where the Lions win a bunch of games and end up 8-9, is yet to come). In the near past, a key INT returned for a TD by Jeff Okudah late helped the Lions squeak by the Bears 31-30, a game in which they were out-gained in yardage 408 to 323. They actually accrued far more first downs (25-19) and won (by a nose) the time of possession battle (30:48 to 29:12). That slow but steady approach (plus the big turnover) paid off in the end. For the Bears, Justin Fields looks like an even faster Lamar Jackson (who at this point throws even worse), but Chicago may be onto something there. Even though Goff is a far superior passer (and played quite well on Sunday), the Bears are closer to solving their QB problem because of all the upside Fields’ rushing prowess offers. I’m afraid we’re seeing peak Goff right now, and it’s really not bad, but when your quarterback is damned by faint praise like that, you need everything else to be perfect; it takes away any margin of error. Interestingly, while the 2023 Detroit first round pick continues to lose value, the selection they got in the Goff/Stafford trade is starting to look pretty darn good. The Lions, were the season to end today, would pick at #11, while the Rams (Lions again) would pick at #8. We just gotta hope the Rams give up entirely and collapse into the top three, which seems more likely than making the playoffs at this point. Stafford got his ring, now L.A. can return the favor and get us OUR franchise QB. That might make it one of the best trades for both parties ever.
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