Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.

This one goes to 11! Let’s start out with a look at our biggest riser, the Cincinnati Reds. After falling to 22-28, the Reds have won 12 of 15, including 6 of 7 last week. Four of those games (and 3 of those wins) were against a good Milwaukee team, #10 in our rankings. Cincinnati is getting it done with the bat, scoring 5.09 runs per game. Unfortunately, they rank 26th in both runs allowed per game (5.11) and defensive runs saved (-19). Math geniuses may have realized that they have given up more runs than they have scored, so maybe their 34-31 record is a bit of an illusion (expected record is 32-33). Their 10-6 record in 1-run games and 8-2 record in extra innings support this, although there is something valuable in being able to finish out close games, as long as you can keep it up the whole year. They also sit three games back in the N.L. Central, behind both the Brewers and Cubs. The Cardinals are also only one game back, so in a couple of days, they could be in fourth. Add to that the likelihood of Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker cooling off (both are having MVP level starts to the year, far above their historical results) and I think it’s long shot for the Reds to make the postseason.

And now for a team that didn’t drop, but only because there’s nowhere left to drop to: Arizona. This team was 15-13 at one point. Since then? 5-35. 5-35! Yikes. 0-6 last week and sitting on a 12 game losing streak. Already lost 13 in a row earlier this year. Are they historically bad? Well, probably not. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders were 20-134, so to have a worse winning percentage, they’d have to go 1-93 the rest of the way. In the post-war era, the 1964 Mets were 40-120. To fall short of that would mean going 20-74 from here, so probably not once again. They don’t even have the worst run differential in baseball (Pittsburgh is first with -98, 14 runs south of the D-backs). Why the terrible record, then? A big part of it is their atrocious 2-15 record in 1-run games. I’m going to predict Arizona does NOT finish with the worst record. I think getting Madison Bumgarner back form injury will stabilize the pitching a little, which is clearly the biggest weakness of the team (5.47 runs per game allowed, last in the league).

The Tigers went 3-4 this week, bouncing back from a sweep by the White Sox by winning the first two of three against the Royals. In prospect news, Casey Mize delivered another good start last night (6.2 IP, 3 ER). In his last 9 starts, Mize is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA, not allowing more than 3 runs once and going at least 6 innings eight times. Tarik Skubal has been good as well, with a 3.31 ERA in his last 7 starts while striking out 56 in 38 innings. The third musketeer, Matt Manning, is scheduled to start tomorrow in his major league debut. Tiger fans are starting a light at the end of the tunnel (it may be Al Avila driving a train, but things are at least looking brighter). Additionally, Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson, who were hitting the cover off the ball in High A West Michigan, have been promoted to the Double A Erie Seawolves this week. Riley Greene has been solid for Erie this year, and now he gets to welcome two possible future teammates on the Tigers to the Seawolves. So there’s 3 great positional prospects coming to join the three pitchers already in Detroit, hopefully sometime next year. It’s finally becoming fun to follow the Tigers after a handful of rough years.

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