Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
The second half of the year begins! The All-star break is still a week a way, but most teams have passed 81 games by. Let’s look at two teams who are out of sync with their run differential: the Seattle Mariners and the Miami Marlins. Seattle has been doing this all year. They have, at 45-41, a winning percentage of .523, which translates to 85-77 over the course of a full year. They also have a -53 run differential, on pace for a -100 over the course of 162 games. I wasn’t able to find any definitive historical list on the subject, but closest thing I could find was the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who went 90-72 with a -20 differential. If the Mariners somehow keep this up, I think it would be even more improbable/impressive. Their expected record is just 37-49, so we have to look a little closer to figure out why. The most obvious reason is their sparkling 19-7 record in 1-run games, the most wins and tied for the least losses in that particular category. They are also 9-1 in extra inning games. The lesson seems to be it’s best to blow out the Mariners, because if it’s close, they’ll probably win. Or maybe they haven’t yet felt the effects of the mariner’s curse.
A team you wouldn’t mind being in a close game with is the Miami Marlins. Their record is 9-19, the worst this side of the Orioles (5-14) and the Diamondbacks (3-20, oof!). Their overall record is 37-47, 23rd best, but their run differential is +22, which is 11th best (Seattle for comparison: 11th best record, 23rd best run differential. Miami is the Upside Down version of the Mariners!). Their expected record is 45-39, even better than Seattle’s actual record. Neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs, so maybe it doesn’t matter. But winning percentage can definitely have an effect on how people perceive the team’s season, which can lead to changes on the field and off. It can also hide weaknesses or strengths of teams, making the way forward harder to figure out. I’ll be very curious to see how their records compare at the end of the year.
In Detroit, a 5-2 week has me feeling optimistic. Detroit has just won a series against Cleveland and against the White Sox, not to mention a split against Houston before that. Those are all good teams (ok, yes, Cleveland in a free fall, but the Tigers contributed to that), and they’re doing it without Boyd and Turnbull (and with Ureña stinking up the joint), the three “safe bets” in the starting rotation coming into the year. The hitting continues to be very good, and although the Tigers aren’t moving up in our rankings, they are separating themselves from the truly bad teams. I think they’re getting better, and I think the coaching and experience for the young players is paying off.
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