Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Up next for review is the A.L. West. The Astros are in the catbird seat, up 5.5 games on second place Oakland. The current total win percentage for the division in .512, second only to the A.L. East’s .521 clip. Our rankings also look favorably on these 5 teams, with an average position of 12.8, again just trailing the East’s 11.6. Houston looks to be the only great team, with Oakland, Seattle, and L.A. all outperforming their expected records to varying degrees while still trailing well behind. Fangraphs has Houston at 98.2% odds of making the playoffs, with only Oakland (44.9%) having a realistic chance to make it in, likely as a wild card. Seattle (4%) and L.A. (1%) aren’t eliminated yet, but they’d have to go on quite a run to get back into it. Texas brings up the rear at 39-68 (third worst in win percentage, and also in our rankings).
Houston is an offensive juggernaut, scoring 5.45 runs per game, well clear of the next best (the Dodgers at 5.19). Combined with a decent pitching staff (4.03 runs allowed per game, 10th best) and a terrific defense (4th best according to Fielding Bible’s defensive runs saved metric), you can see why Houston is in control. Although they are underperforming their expected record (65-42 actual, 69-38 expected), they are likely the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series. Oakland gets in done a different way, with good pitching (3.94 runs allowed per game, 8th in MLB), ok fielding (2 defensive runs saved, 19th) and just enough hitting (4.35 runs per game, 18th. Clearly nothing overwhelming, but they keep winning enough to stay alive in the playoff race. I think they’ll be edged out by the A.L. East’s depth and end up missing out, but they’ve given themselves a chance.
Tigers update: Detroit bounced back from a 4 game losing streak during last week with a 4-2 record, including a much needed day off after 17 games in 16 days. Their record since the All-star break now stands at 12-6 with a healthy +31 run differential. This really feels like a different team from April’s version, which could barely score. Check out the Tigers’ progress in runs per game: April – 2.77, May – 4.41, June – 4.81, July – 5.65 (!). The pitching has been up an down (mostly down to injuries; 4 out of 5 opening day starters and key reliever Michael Fulmer have all missed significant time) and the defense has been terrible, although improved as of late with the call ups of SS Zach Short, C Jake Rogers, and CF Derek Hill, but nobody expected the offense to be a strength this year, especially a month in. This year is all about progress and hopeful signs, and there have been plenty of those as of late.
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