Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Last up in our post All-star break tour of the divisions is the N.L. West. I would have said that this was the best division in baseball most of the year, but despite bottom feeders headed in opposite direction, with the Orioles imploding (19 losses in a row) and the Diamondbacks actually playing ok (16-17 in their last 33), the surge of the Yankees and the recovery of the Red Sox from their little wobble combined with the Padres fading recently gives the edge to the A.L. East. Although aggregate run differential favors the N.L. West (+223 vs. +130), the A.L. East has a better overall win percentage (.522 vs. .519) and, most importantly, a better average position in our power rankings (11.2 vs. 13.2). In fact, the A.L. West (also 13.2) can match their National League counterparts in that metric, even with a .506 win percentage and a -4 aggregate run differential.
San Diego is down to a 26.3% chance at the playoffs (all playoff percentages courtesy of Fangraphs), so while the Dodgers and Giants (both at 100%) are in, the A.L. East is now the the division most likely to get 3 teams in (Rays: 98.2%, Yankees: 94.0%, Red Sox: 82.5%, Blue Jays: 8.2%). What went wrong for the Padres? They have lost 10 of 12, giving up 5.25 runs per game. This has pushed their opponents runs per game up to 4.06 runs per game, 9th best overall. This doesn’t sound too bad, until you consider that at the All-star break they were 1st with 3.44. In the second half of the season, they are allowing 4.71 runs per game. That is a huge drop-off, and they just fired their pitching coach in an attempt to get a new voice in their pitchers’ ears. San Diego is hoping that move and the return of Fernando Tatís, Jr from injury will turn the team around in time. They certainly have the talent necessary. The rest of the division is fairly settled, with the Dodgers and Giants already looking forward to the playoffs and the Rockies and Diamondbacks already looking forward to next year. The former pair have had our top 2 spots locked out for 2 weeks in a row now, and with the surging Dodgers (14-3 in their last 17) looking like the best team in baseball, they may well end the season in those same top two positions.
Detroit is looking to bounce back after a tough stretch (losing 6 of 8), and managed to win Monday and Tuesday nights to bring their record to 3-3 last week. Derek Hill and Akil Baddoo are both back, and Matthew Boyd is finally making rehab starts in Toledo after hitting the I.L. on June 15th, so some help is on the way. Speaking of the Tigers AAA affiliate, top prospects Riley Greene and Spencer Torkleson were promoted to the Mud Hens, paving the way for a likely arrival for both in Detroit some time next year. But the biggest news last week was Miguel Cabrera hitting his 500th (and 501st) home runs. He is only the 28th player to manage the feat, and is closing in on 3,000 hits as well. Currently at 2,957, Cabrera could but is unlikely to make it this year. But when he does, he will be only the 33rd player to get there in MLB history. More significantly, this will make him only the 6th player to manage both 500 HR and 3,000 hits. It has been a pleasure getting to see most of that history here in Detroit, which makes that ugly contract a little easier to forgive.
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