Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
With just a few weeks left in the regular season, let’s check in on the playoff standings, starting in the American League, where there aren’t too many mysteries left. The Tampa Bay Rays (3rd in our rankings), after winning 4 of 5 and watching both the Yankees (lost 8 of 10) and the Red Sox (lost 3 in a row) stumble, pretty much have the East wrapped up. With a 9.5 game lead, FanGraphs gives them an 98.5% chance of winning the division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. In the Central, the White Sox (8th) have been shoo-ins for weeks. Their current lead is 11 games ahead of the Guardians. FanGraphs has them at 100% to win the division. Out west it’s the Astros (4th) holding a 5.5 game lead over the Mariners and A’s. Houston has a 97.7% chance of winning the division and 98.6% chance of making the playoffs. The real excitement in in the race for the 2 wildcard spots. Boston (6th) and New York (7th) are the most likely, with a 73.6% and 76.9% chance respectively, to get one of the two slots. But Toronto (9th) has a real chance as well (36.3%). Long shots include the Athletics (11th) at 4.8% and the Mariners (10th) at 6.1%, although their overall chances at the playoffs increase to 6.3% and 6.8% respectively if you include their chances of catching up with Houston.
In the National League, the Central is the only division that’s pretty much decided. The Brewers (5th) have a healthy 11 game lead over the Reds (12th) and a 100% chance of winning the division. In the East, the crap-o-rama continues. Atlanta (13th) has a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies (15th) and 4 games on the Mets (18th). Yes, the Mets are still alive and kicking, with a 6% chance to win the division and an 8.7% chance of making the playoffs. Realistically, there won’t be a wildcard team from the worst division in baseball, but one of these teams has to make it and Philadelphia has a 22.9% chance of winning the East, which leaves Atlanta at 71.1%. The West will almost certainly send two teams to the post-season. Either the Dodgers (2nd) of the Giants (1st) will win the division and the other will win the first wildcard slot. FanGraphs gives the Dodgers the edge (60.6% compared to 39.4% for San Francisco). The second slot is very much up for grabs, with Cincinnati (49%) and San Diego (32.5%) the frontrunners. St. Louis (19th) is still alive, but barely (2.7%), the same as New York (2.7%) and a little behind the Phillies (8.5%) and, if they lose out on the East title, the Braves (4.6%).
Detroit is not going to the playoffs this year, and probably not next year either (although they have been far better than expected this year, so I wouldn’t rule out a run at the wildcard this time next year). Another tough week record-wise (3-4, with losses against the pitiful Pirates each of the last 2 nights), but the bats have been better lately. Detroit scored 42 runs last week (6 per game) while allowing 36 (5.14 per game). So the bats are awake, but the pitching is asleep again. It’s a young team, so these ups and downs are to be expected. I am hoping for a strong finish to give these inexperienced players (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Hill, Baddoo, Cameron, W. Castro, Funkhouser, Haase, et al.) some confidence during the off-season. Next week we will talk about Miguel Cabrera and whether he can be productive next year.
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