Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
And then there were 4! (this is the tournament version of “the Oxford dictionary defines blank as…”). One big surprise at the end, which ruined my perfect round. Stemshul is probably enjoying how the Mavericks pulled a Giants-over-the-Patriots at-Super-Bowl-XLII on the Suns himself, for that matter. But let’s keep the usual order. To the East!
#1 Miami Heat vs. #2 Boston Celtics
Miami handled Philadelphia pretty easily in the end. When a masked Joel Embiid returned in game three and led them back to 2-2, it looked like we might have a great series. But Embiid, playing through multiple injuries and essentially alone (Harden basically disappeared in games six and seven after a vintage game five performance), couldn’t drag to 76ers to another win. As he faded, so did Philly. GM Daryl Morey has already said he wants coach Doc Rivers AND Harden back (though at a price the Beard is willing to accept? I don’t know), so we’ll see if an off-season of Harden/Embiid integration can cure their woes. Boston, on the other hand, had to deal with the defending champs, albeit without their second best player, Khris Middleton. And it looked like Giannis (with some help from Jrue Holiday) was going to get it done after a game five win, but the Celtics got 45 from Jayson Tatum in game 6 and 27 from Gran Williams (!) in game seven to clinch the series. I think this might have been the secret championship, as I think these were the two teams most capable of winning it all, so my pick will come as no surprise. Both are great defensive teams, but I think Boston has more offensive weapons. I chose the Celtics.
#3 Golden State Warriors vs. #4 Dallas Mavericks
Golden state may have gotten a little lucky with the Ja Morant injury. I’m not sure if their best offensive lineup (Curry, Thompson, Poole, Wiggins, and Green) is good enough on defense. They certainly had no answers for Morant (not that many do) with Thompson no longer looking like the stopper he was before all his injuries and Jordan Poole not capable of the kind of defense that Andre Igoudala and Kevin Durant could provide in previous versions of Golden State’s vaunted Death Lineup. But fortunately for the Warriors, Luka Doncic is not as explosive as Ja. He’s probably a superior player (he dragged a pretty mediocre supporting cast past easily the best team in the regular season), but he succeeds with guile and physicality rather than pure athleticism. I think Wiggins and Green can do more to slow him down than anybody on G.S. could do against Ja Morant. Luka will be tough, though. Everything runs through him, and although Jalen Brunson has been pretty good as well, this team lives and dies by the Doncic. (Side note: Hey Phoenix! What the hell happened? All that beautiful execution and precision in the regular season flew out the window against the Mavs. Sometimes teams are just built better for the regular season. Just ask the Utah Jazz.) So, what’s my pick? I think the Golden State has too much offense for Dallas to handle. Luka could go nuts, but I think the Warriors gets it done.
So far I’m 10 for 12 in these playoffs (c’mon, Dallas! You’re my only misses!), so I’m guessing the Mavs will somehow find a way to beat the Warriors. But I’ll keep picking against them as I think they’re the weakest team left. I’ll admit, the Utah pick was a stretch, but I’m genuinely shocked they beat Phoenix, and with a game seven final of 123-90 (and the game wasn’t nearly that close. It was 65-27 early in the 3rd after a 38-7 run by Dallas. 65-27!). So we’ll see with the Mavericks. They can’t win it all, right!? Um…right?
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