Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Biggest move in our rankings this week? The Tennessee Titans, who mover up 8 spots to #9 with a win over Buffalo. Most would have picked the red hot Bills, who were coming off a 4 game win streak which included a 38-20 thrashing of Chris Collinsworth’s favorite baseball player Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Are Tennessee a real contender this year? They certainly should win the division, with Houston and Jacksonville (#31 and #29 respectively) offering no competition. Indianapolis could be a threat, if Carson Wentz doesn’t break into a million little pieces. Their 2-4 record includes losses to the Titans, Rams, Ravens, and Seattle with Russel Wilson. They are 23rd on our rankings, but they have a +8 point differential despite their record. Tennessee is up 2 games, but has a tough 4 game stretch coming up with games against the Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints up next. The Titans defense is allowing 384.0 YPG (24th) and 26.8 PPG (also 24th), so the offense really needs to be great. One way to do that is will ball control, which takes the pressure off the defense, keeps them well rested throughout the game, and provides fewer opportunities for the opponent to score points. The Titans are well positioned to do just that. Ryan Tannehill is overlooked as a quality QB perennially, but the real engine of the offense is Derrick Henry.
Running backs have lost a quite a bit of value in today’s NFL, with the heavy emphasis on the passing game as the rules committee has made it harder and harder for defensive backs to do their jobs, but the Titans like to play the old way. Tennessee is 27th in passing yards per game at 220.5 YPG, but 3rd in rushing with 164.2. Since week 1, when the Cardinals held them to just 86, it has been a healthy 179.8. Derrick Henry has contributed 79.4% of these yards. Those 130.6 YPG put him on pace for 2,088 yards if we still had a 16 game season. In 17, it would be 2,219 yards, eclipsing Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 in 1984. This may be the first of many records to fall thanks to the newly extended season. To be fair, Henry could get there in 16; last year he managed 2,027, the 5th best season of all time. Other records in danger this year include Peyton Manning’s 5,477 passing yards in 2013 (Tom Brady in on pace for 5,477 in 16 and 5,820 in 17), LaDainian Tomlinson’s 28 rushing TDs in 2006 (Henry once again; he’s on pace for just under 27 in 16 and just over 28 in 17), Micheal Strahan’s 22.5 sacks in 2001 (Myles Garrett’s pace: just over 21 in 16 and almost 23 in 17), and Dick “Night Train” Lane’s 14 interceptions in 1952 (Trevon Diggs somehow has 7 interceptions already, a pace of almost 19 in 16 and almost 20 in 17 games). I find this last one the least likely to be broken. Interceptions can come in bunches, but a drought is also quite likely. He may not even get to double digits.
Well, the Lions lost (no surprise), but for the first time, there were really very few positives to be found. They got blown out by the Bengals (34-11, and it wasn’t really that close). Coach Campbell took a risk this week by calling out QB Jared Goff. The only question is not whether he was correct, but whether doing that will motivate his most important player or maybe just backfire (if you’re playing for the top pick in the draft next year, you might consider this a positive development). In all honesty, Goff was terrible on Sunday. He was 28-42 for 202 yards and 1 interception. That’s poor, but most of that “production” came in garbage time, long after the game was decided. In the 1st half, when the game was still in the balance, he was 9-15 for 38 yards and an interception. The defense was solid, giving up only 10 points despite the turnover, but they just wore down in the second half as they continued to get no help from the offense. Not just Goff’s fault as injuries have hurt an already poor receiving corps, but if he wants to be Detroit’s QB after next year, he’d better show he can elevate a mediocre offense. Ironically, his poor play makes it more likely the Lions get a top pick next year, which increases the odds they select an eventual replacement as the best QBs are always taken in the first few picks. Teams who pick there usually need a quarterback, and if the best prospects are already off the board, the Lions will be less inclined to go in that direction. Goff is in a tough spot, but he has the chance to prove that his Rams exit was a mistake and that he can be a franchise quarterback. He just needs to be a lot better than he has shown yet this year.
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