Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
More wildcard excitement this week! In the American League, it’s all about the East division, with the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox separated by only two games in the standings. FanGraphs, once again providing all playoff odds, has Boston up to 92.7% in terms of playoff likelihood. The Red Sox have won 6 in a row to bump their odds up from 70.8% last week at this time. The Blue Jays (4-2 last week) and the Yankees (4-3) are doing enough to stay in it for the final spot, but will need to step it up to claim a chance at the postseason. Toronto is the frontrunner at 65.3%, but the Yankees are still alive at 39%. A great or terrible week for either team before the end of the year could be crucial. Although there are two A.L. West teams (Oakland and Seattle) alive with identical 82-69 records (3 games behind the 85-66 Blue Jays for the last spot), FanGraphs doesn’t believe they stand much of a chance (1.8% and 1.3% respectively). Our rankings say the Red Sox (#5) and the Blue Jays (#7) are better than the Yankees (#8), but anything can still happen.
In the senior circuit, the Cardinals continue to win, running their streak to 10 in a row. This has dramatically improved their odds, up from 2.8% two weeks ago all the way up to 90.3%. Although the Phillies (17.8%), Reds (5.8%), Padres (1.3%), and Mets (0.1%) are all still alive, the Phillies are more likely to beat out the Braves for the division than St. Louis for the last wildcard (15.9% to win the division and 1.9% to win a wildcard slot). This means, of course, that Atlanta still hasn’t clinched the N.L. East, with a 3-3 weeks dropping their chances in the division from 89.8% to 84.0%. The Dodgers and Giants will take the West and the first wildcard slot, and it is looking increasingly likely the Cards will get the second. Our rankings consider St, Louis (#12) to be the best of the teams still alive for (but as of yet to clinch) a playoff berth, with the Braves (#13), Reds (#14), Padres (#15), Phillies (#16), and Mets (#21) all lagging behind.
Great week for the Tigers, who went 5-2 against three first place teams: Milwaukee (#6 in our rankings), Tampa Bay (#3), and the White Sox (#9). This strong finish against tough opposition has bumped the Tigers inside the top 20 (up two spots to #19) for the first time since week 2. Ok, so nineteenth isn’t too impressive, but for a rebuilding team nobody thought would be any good, it is another indicator of the surprising success of this year. A 7-3 finish would get them to 81-81, completely improbable considering the 9-24 start. September has been their best month of the year, with a 12-7 record so far, and that’s with the tough teams (mostly out of the way (still four to go with Chicago, but also 6 games against the Twins and Royals. I couldn’t be any happier with how the season has gone and am looking forward to further progress again next year.
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