Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Welcome back to another week of 64tacos Power Rankings. Let’s talk about our S-tier; do the Vikings and Bills deserve to be in there with the Eagles? There’s no doubt Philadelphia deserves to be there. They’re the only undefeated team left and have looked pretty comfortable getting there. Minnesota is the only one loss team, which is kind of amazing considering their mediocre +32 point differential. That’s the case for the Vikes: they’ve only lost once. The underlying numbers are the case against. FiveThirtyEight’s ELO rating, which tries to determine a team’s actual quality by adjusting for home field, strength of schedule, and point differential among other things, has the Vikings at 6th best, behind the Eagles, Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Ravens. ESPN’s Football Power Index, another methodology with the same goal, is even less generous, slotting Minnesota all the way back in 12th. Let’s look at a few more stats; how about point differential? +32 is good for 8th. Points per game? 15th. Points allowed? 8th. Yards per game? 15th. Yards allowed? 25th (!).
That last number is particularly worrying. You might think they have a top ten defense based on points allowed, but they actually give up more yards (368.1) than they gain (340.1). How is this possible? They are tied for third in turnover margin (+6) and are a remarkable 6-0 in one score games (8 points or fewer). It also helps that they play in the NFC North. Let’s face it, Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago aren’t putting up too much resistance (Minnesota has beat all three teams already). The Vikings have played exactly 2 good teams: the Eagles (23-7 loss) and the Dolphins (24-16 win). That Miami win looks good at first, but beating Teddy Bridgewater’s Dolphins isn’t quite the same thing as Tua’s Dolphins. Turnovers and close games tend to even out in the long run, although some teams have luck with these two stats over the course of an entire season. Minnesota fans better hope they’re in that category. I’ve been beating the drum for the Giants inevitable drop-off for a while now, but the Vikings are my other very overrated team. They can hardly fail to make the playoffs at this point, but I certainly don’t think their stay in the S-tier will last for long.
The question for Buffalo is a lot simpler: Is Josh Allen currently healthy and will he remain healthy the rest of the way? The Bills and Allen are a proven commodity, much like Kansas City, and we can forgive the occasional hiccup during the regular season (like last week’s loss to the suddenly maybe-they’re-actually-good Jets). But Allen has suffered, “an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament and related nerves” and is possibly seeking a second opinion (no comment from Sean McDermott on that when asked). I don’t like the sounds of that one bit. So I’d say they deserve to be there, but they also are in danger of drifting downward. Want some stats to back that up? OK, Buffalo is in the top four in PPG, PPG allowed, YPG, and YPG allowed. And they’re first in point differential (+102). So yeah, definitely good enough, I’d say.
Detroit, who hasn’t been worthy of S-tier status for decades, did manage to win. Better yet, they beat the Packers. Good to see the defense respond, but the offense was disappointing again. The key to the victory was the three interceptions, which gives me great pleasure because Aaron Rodgers is the worst. Yes, he’s been very good and in our division for his entire career, but I used to actually enjoy watching him play as long as it wasn’t against the Lions. But the last few years have demonstrated that he’s undeniably a great QB, but also undeniably a jerk. I enjoy the annoyance of a-holes when things don’t go their way, especially when they’re used to everything working out (for the most part). The win was a blow to Detroit’s chances in the QB sweepstakes in next year’s draft, but it’s hard to root against your team. I’m ready to move on from Goff, and the next signal caller will be crucial for future success for the franchise.
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