Power rankings system devised and compiled weekly by Stemshul. “Expert” analysis by paradroid.
Well, it was an exciting end to the season, with both A.L. wildcard spots up for grabs between 4 teams on the final day. The N.L. West title was also decided by game 162, with the Giants winning to push the 106 win Dodgers into the N.L. wildcard game against the Cardinals. The Red Sox and Yankees both won, which gave them the chance to compete for the right to play their A.L. East compatriots, the Rays. Seattle’s improbable battle to make the playoffs with a substantial negative run differential (-51) ended with a loss, and Toronto fell short despite winning. 91 wins would have won the N.L. East by 3 games, but it only gets you 4th in the A.L. East. Let’s get to some predictions for the wildcard and divisional series rounds!
I think the Red Sox are the better team, with a powerful offense ranked 5th in runs per game (5.12) leading the way. The Yankees are relatively poor offensively, scoring just 4.39 runs per game (19th), but are solid in the other half of the inning, allowing the 7th fewest runs per game at 3.96, whereas Boston is a bit more generous (4.58, 16th). All that said, Gerrit Cole is starting for New York and is a better pitcher than Nathan Eovaldi, so despite the game being played at Fenway, I’m picking the Yankees in a one game playoff. If it were a seven game series, I’d chose Boston, but I trust Cole to get it done Tuesday night. Either way, I’ve got Tampa Bay winning the match-up which follows. Both wildcard teams were pretty inconsistent all year and I think the powerful Rays (5.29 runs per game, 2nd best) will handle whoever they face. The White Sox have been coasting since July 20th, going 35-32 to finish off the season. While the Pale Hose are just as good pitching, Houston is better all around: 1st in runs scored at 5.33 vs. 7th and 4.91 for the Sox; 5th in runs allowed at 3.93 vs. 4th at 3.89 for Chicago. It could be close, but I give the advantage to the Houston Trash Bins (guy!).
In the National League, you’d have to be a fool to pick against the Dodgers, so in the battle of the improbably good old men (Scherzer for the Dodgers: 15-4, 2.46 ERA, 6.0 WAR, 37 years old. Wainwright for the Cardinals: 17-7, 3.05 ERA, 3.5 WAR, 40 years old.), I will play it safe and chose L.A. Your prize for winning this game? The 107-55 Giants! S.F. won 10 of 19 regular season games between the two, but conventional wisdom would say that shortening the rotation for the postseason benefits the Dodgers more. However, it’s looking like Clayton Kershaw may miss out on October baseball all together, so I will go with the Giants moving on in a close, competetive, and probably low-scoring series. Atlanta is lucky to be in the playoffs at all (thanks to the very mediocre division, probably the worst in baseball), and the Brewers have been rolling most of the year (74-44 since a lackluster 21-23 start), so it’s Milwaukee for me in this series.
To summarize, I have the Yankees and Dodgers winning the wildcard games and the Rays facing the Astros in the ALCS. My NLCS is Giants and the Brewers. It just so happens that those are three of our top 4 in the final regular season rankings, with Milwaukee in place of L.A. Picks for the Championship Series’ will happen once the Divisional Series’ end.
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