Football is back tonight with a Seattle vs. Dallas match-up that the Seahawks need to win to bolster their playoff hopes, probably more that Dallas does. The Cowboys are three games up on Green Bay to get into the playoffs, two up on Seattle for the 5th seed (best non-division winner), and are two (and currently the tie-breaker) behind the Eagles in the NFC East. It’s going to be tough to catch Philly and should be reasonably easy to hold onto their current slot in light of the weakness of the NFC this year. Plus it’s at Jerry World. I gotta go with “America’s team” (I tried it without the sarcastic punctuation; it just didn’t feel right). But we’re going to take a closer look at what ails the Lions, as promised last week.

Detroit hasn’t been right since that Ravens shellacking. They bounced back with a win against the Raiders, but Josh McDaniels was still the coach and that team was garbage, something most of their players would happily tell you. They were about as happy as the Lions were under Matt Patricia, which is to say fucking miserable. But they won, and despite the utter dominance statistically, the game was relatively close. This is because the Lions kept making big mistakes. They fumbled twice, Goff threw an INT, and the team was 1-5 in the red zone. But the defense was very good, so the Lions won. Next up were the Chargers. This game was all kinds of fun for the neutral viewer, as each team ran up and down the field all day. Detroit really cleaned up their offensive play, eliminating the turnovers and racking up big play after big play. But the defense had real trouble with Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Outside of a Kerby Joseph interception, L.A. got what they wanted. They tallied 38 points, were 7/14 on third down, 3/3 on fourth, and had the game run 64 minutes instead of 64, would likely have won. This was a classic “team with the ball last wins” type of game, one which Detroit won this time (but lost basically the same way against Seattle earlier in the year).

Up next was the Chicago game. The Bears were given every opportunity to win this game, and I mean every. Detroit’s first drive ended in an interception. So did the third. Then the Bears decided they didn’t want to win either and fumbled the ball right back to the Lions. Detroit seemed to wake up, scoring two touchdowns around a Chicago field goal. Well, rough start, we thought, but now we’ve got a 14-10 lead and the ball to start the second half. We got this! Nope, we did not have that. Detroit’s next four drives: punt, fumble, interception, punt. The Bears responded with a field goal, a touchdown, a field goal, and a nearly nine minute drive for another field goal, this one capping a 16 to nothing first 26 minutes of the second half. From this point forward, the Lions were perfect. And they had to be. First it was six plays for 75 yards in 1:16, then a three-and-out for the Bears (25 seconds), and then 11 plays for 73 yards in 2:04. This left 29 ticks on the clock, but an Aidan Hutchinson strip sack (which turned into a safety) clinched it. Whew! Super exciting! We overcame adversity! Et cetera, et cetera! Man, Detroit really shouldn’t have won that game. Four turnovers and losing the time of possession battle by such a wide margin (40:24 to 19:36) almost never results in a win. In fact, Detroit arguably played better the next week and, spoiler alert, lost.

Green Bay is a little better than Chicago. And although the Lions did some things better against the Packers (won time of possession battle, only three turnovers this week), they weren’t able to throw the switch and be perfect. Of course not, that’s a bad template for winning! So after G.B. took a 23-6 halftime lead and a 29-14 late 3rd quarter lead (thanks to a failed fake punt from their own 23), Detroit drove 36 yards and fumbled. Then drove 79 yards to a 4th and goal failure from the Packers’ seven yard line with under seven minutes left. That turnover on downs left Green Bay with a 98.8% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s model. Incidentally, Chicago was at 98.2% per ESPN when the comeback began the previous week, so while unlikely, a win was still a possibility. But of course, Detroit didn’t win. Green Bay held the ball for the next four minutes, and that was that. The Lions added some yards and points late, but needed an onside kick recovery to have any chance, which these days means pretty much no. Suddenly, the NFC North crown looks like it might not be Detroit’s. Yes, Chicago did them a HUGE favor by beating the Vikings, but Minnesota is on the schedule twice, along with Dallas, a Bears team who presents Detroit with mobile QB problems, and an abruptly scary Broncos team. If the Lions lose to the Vikings twice, to the Cowboys, and to Denver, that’s only 10 wins against seven losses. Can Minnesota go four and one and win the North on a tie-breaker? Yeah, they absolutely can. So the offense needs to get rid of the turnovers, the defense needs to figure out how to get off the field (especially against running QBs), and the team as a whole needs to finally win the North for the first time since it was created in 2002. Dan Campbell, stay aggressive please, it’s done far more good than harm, but these 10 days between games had better be productive ones!